How Omaha, Nebraska could decide the 2024 Presidential Election
The 2024 presidential election is likely to be one of the closest in recent memory - and it may all come down to the city of Omaha, Nebraska. With 150 days left until November 5th, the potential presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden is set to be the most pivotal presidential election in modern history. The Electoral College forces presidential candidates to focus on winning at least 270 electoral votes, with current polling showing Biden lagging behind in swing states. Most states award their electoral college votes by a winner-take-all system, except Maine and Nebraska, where the winner of the statewide popular vote automatically receives two electoral college Votes. However, the Trump campaign is lobbying for changes to state law to ensure all electoral votes are awarded to the candidate who wins the statewide vote, which if successful, this could put one more electoral vote safely in the Republican column. If a tie would occur, the US House of Representatives would select the President.
Published : 11 months ago by Nate Morris in Politics
With 150 days until November 5th, Americans are already bracing for the most pivotal presidential election in modern history. The all-but-certain rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden is leaving most voters deeply dissatisfied with their choices.
Nearly half of all voters wish to replace both Trump and Biden on the ballot with other options. For voters under 30, that number skyrockets to two-thirds of voters.
In every other election, candidates compete for the highest number of votes cast in order to win. For presidential candidates, the Electoral College forces candidates to focus on winning at least 270 electoral votes. As a result, the nationwide contest shrinks to a handful of “swing states” that tend to shift between Republicans and Democrats each cycle. States like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Arizona and others receive outsized attentions from candidates and media.
Current polling shows that President Biden is lagging behind in swing states, pointing to the likelihood of an incredibly close election where every single electoral vote will count.
And that’s why this November, all eyes may be on a purple city in a deep red state: Omaha, Nebraska.
With a population of just under 500,000 people, Omaha is one of the largest cities in the plains. The entire city sits within the boundaries of Nebraska’s second congressional district. This purple district often shifts back and forth between Republicans and Democrats. Voters in the district favored Obama in 2008, Romney in 2012, Trump in 2016, and Biden in 2020.
Most states in the country award their electoral college votes by a winner-take-all system, except two: Maine and Nebraska. In these states, the winner of the statewide popular vote automatically receives two electoral college votes. The rest of the state’s electoral votes are given to the winner of each congressional district.
In other words, even though Trump won the statewide vote in 2020, Biden won one electoral vote from Nebraska for carrying the second district.
Trump and his allies, including Nebraska’s current governor, are fighting to change this ahead of the presidential election. Reports show the Trump campaign is pressuring Republican legislators to change the state law, ensuring all electoral votes are awarded to the candidate who wins the statewide vote. If successful, the scheme would put one more electoral vote safely in the Republican column.
Democrats, along with a number of Republican lawmakers, have thus far opposed the plan despite ongoing pressure.
The scenario where Nebraska decides the future of America
But why would the Trump campaign be so intently focused on securing one more electoral college vote?
According to current polling, Trump has a strong lead over Biden in most swing states. In Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, however, polling much tighter.
Assuming polling across states is correct, there is a very real scenario where Biden wins those three rustbelt states, while Trump carries Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina.
If that happens, Biden would win 269 electoral college votes to Trump’s 268. It takes 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.
In this very possible hypothetical, Biden would win a second term if he also carries Nebraska’s second congressional district. However, if Trump wins the district, or if his allies are successful in changing state law, the election would be tied.
In the event of a tie, the responsibility would fall on the US House of Representatives to select the President. Rather than each member getting an individual vote, each state would cast a single vote. The first candidate to receive twenty-six votes would become President.
Twenty-six states currently have a congressional delegation comprised of a majority of Republicans. Meaning, a tied electoral college vote would likely ensure Trump is elected President.
Just over one hundred and fifty days are left before what may be the closest presidential election in a generation. And the future of the country may come down to the residents of a city on the banks of the Missouri River.
Topics: 2024 Elections